By Guy Centola
If Trump is the Republican nominee he can win the White House. If Trump runs third party spoiler, he spoils the election for the Democrat by carrying nine states and throwing the election into the House of Representatives, (denying anyone 270 electoral votes) whereby the Republican nominee would be chosen.
Under this scenario Trump would have a reasonable chance to carry by plurality Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania with his rustbelt populist message and his crossover appeal to the black community which sees him as a bling iconic figure and not a doctrinaire Republican like Ben Carson out to cut benefits Ayn Rand Style.
Increasing the Republican Trump black vote to 12% from 3% makes these states winnable for him as a major party or third party nominee.
Other states falling in line for Trump by plurality include Wisconsin and its LaFollette, Joe McCarthy Populism; New Hampshire with its Eugene McCarthy, McGovern, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. write in, Pat Buchanan contrarian mindset; Florida with its transiency, and Nevada with its bling.
The Reagan Democrats, somewhat moved by Palin on the McCain ticket, and not at all moved by Romney-Ryan, would see Trump as a viable alternative.
73% or so of those who didn’t vote in 2012 were white. An appeal to their disenfranchisement would add far greater numbers to the GOP than a bidding war for free stuff to the Hispanic Democrat black vote hoping for a nominal cross over. The media never mentions this math.
Remember- Trump is seen as a winner- not as a loser or spoiler as other third party aspirants have been seen. This perception will be a psychological advantage going into the voting machine.
For the Republican nominee to defeat the Democrat he must carry Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Can this realistically be done by anyone but Trump? No. This leaves the only option: being Trump the Republican nominee or the Trump third party insurgency.
If Trump throws the election into the House of Representatives by getting 124 electoral votes (the nine states) the wild west of constitutional law kicks in with the poorly written twelfth amendment. The Democrat would get 255 electoral votes and the Republican 159. Trump would swing to the Democrats from the Republican Missouri, Arizona, and North Carolina. However the nine states Trump would carry himself would come out of the Democrat column.
If only the federalist papers could have been incorporated into the constitution as well as much of the Articles of Confederation, our wonderful 18th century experiment would not have eroded into being nothing more than a blanket power of attorney for fractional reserve banking.
Trump could idly sit by and watch the House pick the GOP nominee, or he could exercise brinkmanship and offer his electoral votes to the Democrat unless the Republican House chooses him-either way, a Republican president. Thus the rationale for Trump on a ticket.
But then there is the federal law which precludes the brokering of a federal job in return for political support. If Trump instructed his electors to vote for one of his opponents to put them over the top with 270 electoral votes, does that instruction and or action to do so constitute a violation of this Federal law? Rod Blagojevich anyone?
So here you have it GOP. Please make Trump your nominee. And if not, albeit with deadlines approaching, please Mr. Trump, run third party as a back-up contingency to force this constitutional crisis so as to address the critical issues facing our nation- the ultimate government shutdown!
Remember- it is the New York Ed Cox led Republican State Committee that orchestrated the first ballot only rule that could be used as a template across the country by other state committees to deny Trump maneuver room on the convention floor next year in Cleveland. This is the pretext to go third party.
Winston Churchill once said to Franklin Roosevelt regarding Lend Lease- give us the tools and we will finish the job. Put Trump on a ticket and we the people will finish the job!